Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Boras, Holliday & The Quest For A Shorter Contract

Now that the Bay shoe has finally dropped into the misguided orange-and-blue sea, all focus shifts to the guy everyone wanted in the first place.  HoF voter and Nashville aficionado Tracy Ringolsby of the Foxes is reporting that, although the Cardinals have offered an 8-year package in the vicinity of $140 mil, Boras & Co. are seeking a shorter deal with a higher average annual salary.  According to Ringolsby's sources, Holliday would prefer a 7-year deal that will exceed the $18M annual offer that he rejected from the Rockies in 2008.   Now, either Scottie B. has been spending a day too many in the opium den, or Ringolsby's credibility standard for his sources has fallen by the gin side.

The Math:

Let's assume Holliday (H) can pull in a 7-year/$130M deal at an average annual of $18.57M (good luck).  Thus, he is forgoing $10M in guaranteed money and assuming that he can command a new deal at age 37 that will exceed the $10M + league minimum for subsequent years.  Thus, we get

E(H37,38...) > E(H38,39...) + $10M

That is to say Holliday will need have a strong year in 2016 to command a multi-year deal for his age 37+ seasons that exceeds the $10M he could guarantee right just now.  We don't have to check the actuarial tables to predict that aging outfielders of Matt's skill set are not in high demand, at least not at those prices.

The Digest: Did Scott Boras forget to do the math?  BorasGlobalCorp that produces reports for prospective GM's that deforest small logging communities?

Or maybe Ringolsby should check the integrity of his sources.  Or just, I don't know, open his bloody head. Mathematics!

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